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Feb 28, 20215 min read

How Will US-Iran Relations Change in a Biden Presidency?

By: Sydney Carroll


Relations between the United States and Iran have been strained since the late 20th Century. According to the US State Department, “as a result of the Iranian takeover of the American Embassy on November 4, 1979, the United States and Iran severed diplomatic relations in April 1980.” However, with Iran’s recent increased possession of potential nuclear weapons, tensions between the US and Iran have grown to an all-time high. As such, one of new President Joe Biden’s biggest tasks in both foreign policy and national security will be ensuring, at the very least, a decrease in tensions with Iran.


How did US-Iran relations change during the Trump Administration?

Former President Donald Trump began his administration intent on tough foreign policy towards Iran. During a campaign rally in 2015, he referred to the Iran Nuclear Deal as the “worst deal ever negotiated”, and frequently promised to immediately dismantle the Deal if elected. The Iran Nuclear Deal is a deal brokered between Iran and several world powers, which, according to the Council on Foreign Relations, was intended to place “significant restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.” As planned, Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, and devastated the Iranian economy through oil sanctions and significantly raising tensions between the US and Iran. These sanctions resulted in a 7.6% contraction of Iran’s GDP in the first 9 months of 2020, according to the World Bank, and further decreased the standard of living in Iran by decreasing healthcare funding and benefits for the unemployed. Then, in early 2020, the Trump Administration authorized an airstrike that would result in the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, who was seen as second in command over the entire country, just below their supreme leader. Nations across the globe condemned the attack, and according to Al Jazeera, “[In Iran] tens of thousands of mourners clad in black filled the streets of Iran’s Mashhad and Ahvaz to pay their respects to Soleimani.” This led to Iranian pledges to strike back towards the US - but this resulted in more detriment to Iran than anything else. Just days after the attack, an Iranian plane mysteriously crashed just minutes after takeoff, killing all 176 onboard. Although not initially revealed, it was later declassified that the plane had been accidentally shot down by Iran during a confrontation with the US in response to Solemani’s killing. Throughout 2020, Iran’s economy continued to reel from US Sanctions, “negatively affecting the Iranian government’s ability to adequately respond to the mounting health consequences of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic,” according to Human Rights Watch.


Will Biden rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal?

Tensions between the US and Iran have failed to diminish in the first 3 weeks of Biden’s presidency. So far, Biden has failed to rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal, to the surprise of both those abroad and within the US. Iran, wishing for the US to rejoin the deal, has “hinted they are rethinking their vow to never seek a nuclear weapon” according to the New York Times. This suggestion, while meaning to pressure the US to rejoin, was also met with a new intelligence briefing confirming that Iran is more than two years away from creating a nuclear weapon— decreasing pressure on the US. Thus far, Biden has maintained that he won’t rejoin the deal until Iran stops enriching Uranium. According to the BBC, "Iran began feeding uranium already enriched up to 4.1% U-235 into six centrifuge cascades at the Fordo Fuel Enrichment Plant for further enrichment up to 20%.” This increase in uranium furthers Iran’s pursuits towards a nuclear weapon, stressing the international community. With sanctions from the Trump Administration still in place, Iran’s economy continues to struggle - meaning that they’ll ultimately have to cease enriching uranium or deal with a potential economic crisis.


Will Biden cease US Military presence in Iran?

During the Trump Administration, US Military presence in and around Iran grew significantly. The Andalou Agency estimates, “Iran [is] surrounded by dozens of U.S. military bases and nearly 65,000 American troops.” As part of the post-9/11 ‘War on Terror’, the US has significantly increased its military presence in the Middle East in the last 20 years. This includes Iran, which is one of the world’s largest US-designated state sponsors of terrorist organizations. Just last month, Al Jazeera reported that Iran had held 5 military drills over just two weeks, most likely in response to the US flying B-25 bombers over the Middle East. With the Iranian government making no effort to defend their citizens from threats of terrorism, Biden abandoning military presence in and around Iran is out of the question. However, Biden and his foreign policy team have seemed open to decreasing military presence around the nation in exchange for improvements in human rights and abiding by the Iran Nuclear Deal. One of Biden’s first actions while in office was to “move an aircraft carrier, USS Nimitz, out of the Persian Gulf in an early signal to Iran that he desires lower tensions,” as reported by Business Insider. Small, symbolic actions like these could prove to Iran that the US will stay true to its word - as long as Iran keeps up its end of the bargain.


Will Biden return to diplomatic relations with Iran?

The US and Iran have had no formal diplomatic relations since 1980. However, according to the Center for American Progress, “a new round of diplomacy with Iran will be necessary to secure the United States’ security interests in the long run.” Any attempt Biden makes at returning to diplomatic relations with Iran will be far from easy. Both the US and Iran will have to make serious changes and compromises to even come close to diplomacy. “Diplomacy will involve many awkward exchanges, especially for an administration which has already put human rights on their agenda,” as stated by the BBC. Iran has had a troubling record with human rights, and repression of freedom of protest and expression by the Iranian government has increased significantly over the past 5 years. However, diplomatic relations with the US could be the very thing that increases standards of human rights in Iran. Through lessening sanctions in exchange for a better record on human rights, the Biden Administration could take a significant step towards decreasing conflict both within Iran and between Iran and the US. As well, a return to diplomatic relations between the US and Iran is almost entirely dependent on both rejoining the Iran Nuclear Deal and decreasing US Military presence in Iran. While Biden hasn’t outright said that he wishes for diplomacy between the US and Iran, it’s clear that a return to diplomatic relations is in the best interests of US foreign policy and national security.


While the Biden Administration will bring many changes at home and abroad, relations in Iran will truly test their ability to mitigate a tense situation while keeping US interests in mind. Relations with Iran pose a test to US national security and our future as a leader in diplomacy worldwide. But for now, Biden’s success with Iran will be a story that only time - and his administration's legacy - will tell.


Discussion Questions:

  • Why has Iran proved to be such a challenge to US Foreign Policy in the past?

  • Which actions could Biden take to reach diplomacy with Iran?

  • Did Trump permanently worsen relations with Iran?

  • Is Iran’s record on human rights a stumbling block in creating diplomatic relations?

  • What would be the benefits for the US of diplomatic relations with Iran?


Sources Used/Further Reading:


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