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By: Ethan Wilkes
Ever since 1949, Taiwan has “independently” governed itself, supposedly being mostly free from Chinese dominance. But as tensions begin to rise, Taiwan is no longer satisfied with its current state. Taiwan is stuck between a rock and a hard place, with massive economic reliance on China and having that used as leverage over the island. Hopes for international recognition are being heard, but action is falling short. There may be little hope left for Taiwan to be recognized as independent anytime in the near future.
What are the benefits of an independent Taiwan?
The main fuel behind the fight for independence rests behind Taiwan no longer being subordinated to China. Ranging from fear of military encroachment to very few democratic principles, no longer being under the rule of China is a fight that many Taiwanese people are willing to take.
How does the international community feel?
In order for Taiwan to receive independence, it must have international support to do so. Taiwan’s military would never be able to revolt against the Chinese military simply because Taiwan’s military is much smaller and weaker. But with support from allies, Taiwan may be able to gain enough leverage to receive independence from China.
That’s where the first problem starts to arise. Most countries that have the leverage to recognize Taiwan as independent are afraid to do so because it will deplete their relationship with China. Remember, a country can’t just recognize Taiwan and China will then leave Taiwan alone, it takes large military support to defend the island to prevent Chinese encroachment, even after they are recognized as independent. No country wants to risk stepping on China’s toes because of the international power they hold.
There are two ways that foreign affairs experts expect China to react if a democratic country were to increase its support for Taiwan to become independent. First, is with harsh military power. China has what is called the “Anti-Secession Law” that was signed into law back in 2005 that states the Chinese government and all of their people have an obligation to “keep territorial integrity”, otherwise known as protecting Taiwan with any means necessary. This includes harsh military and garnering China’s allies to help protect the island as well. The only way that a large democracy will ever recognize Taiwan as independent is if they feel confident winning a military confrontation against China.
The second way that China may react if a large country were to increase its support for Taiwan is increased economic penalties like tariffs, embargos, and other sanctions. These tools would be used if a country were to increase their support for Taiwan, but not enough where a military conflict would be strategic. No country wants to risk having China harm its economic prosperity because of the foothold that China has in global markets.
It’s because of both military and economic retaliation that many international actors fear recognizing Taiwan. This means that if there is no u-turn in China’s support for Taiwan, the chance of Taiwanese independence will remain low.
What stakes does China have vested in Taiwan?
If China is this willing to protect Taiwan with any means necessary, it must have a strong stake in Taiwan remaining subordinated to China. First, Taiwan provides an economic and military outlet to the South China Sea that China does not want to give up. Second, China’s geopolitical narrative is to garner as much power as possible, and losing control over Taiwan would make China perceived as weak to the international community, going against their goals.
Discussion Questions:
What are the barriers to an independent Taiwan?
How can the international community best contest China’s rule over Taiwan?
Is independence in the best interest of Taiwan?
How much pressure will it take for China to abandon the one-china policy?
How would the people of Taiwan be impacted by independence?
Should the United States recognize Taiwan?
Sources Used:
Further Reading:
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