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Sep 19, 20205 min read

Was the RNC a success?

By: Jack Siegel


Party conventions are an odd thing. In a country that is more polarized than ever, both the Democratic and Republican conventions were remarkable in how they preserved old traditions, from setting the stage for rising stars in the party to establishing the party’s campaign message for the upcoming election. Because of the way the Republican party has molded around Trump, it should have come as no surprise to Americans when half of the featured speakers at the RNC shared a certain last name, but many were still peaked at the many peculiar breaks in the tradition that occurred at the RNC this year. Because of COVID-19, this year’s conventions, for Republicans and Democrats alike, are possibly the only chance for each party to rally its entire force for a campaign event. Despite this, the GOP broke traditions left and right for Trump, holding speeches in the White House gardens and giving precious airtime to people with little qualifications other than a tenuous connection to the Trump name. With the importance placed upon this event, and with the unusual breaks in tradition by the RNC this year, the question must be answered: Was the convention a success? And how do we define success for the Trump Republican Party?


What do the polls suggest about the success of the RNC?


The first and most concrete metrics when judging success are polls and ratings. Historically, party conventions provide a noticeable boost in polling and favorability to the Presidential nominee, but in this area, Trump struggled. As FiveThirtyEight reported, the polling boost that a convention usually provides was below average (~2% when the boost is usually 4% or more) for Trump this time around. Moreover, Trump didn’t gain any favorability with voters, unlike Joe Biden, who gained 4 points in this area. Similarly, with respect to ratings, Trump also failed to meet expectations. CNN reported that the DNC either beat or tied the RNC in viewers for every night of their respective conventions, often by millions of viewers, signaling that Americans were at least more willing to sit down and hear what Democrats had to say more often than with Trump. In these raw numbers, Trump was beaten at his own convention, and Joe Biden’s campaign staff was quick to pounce on this, with one of them tweeting,

"I always forget, does @realDonaldTrump care about his television ratings? Or is that not something he cares about? Like, do you think it'll trigger him that @JoeBiden's speech got way bigger ratings than his[sic] did?”

These numbers certainly aren’t definitive measures of failure without other context, especially since Trump is known to be a divisive figure that many Republicans will vote for but not want to listen to, and since streaming numbers aren’t included in either candidate’s ratings. Even though a convention’s job isn’t only to attract ratings and approval, the numbers on this convention haven’t been fruitful.


How did the RNC fare in other key aspects of the convention?


Trump has struggled in many areas over the past three and a half years, namely his decreasing support among white suburban women, his handling of the Black Lives Matter movement, the continued trend of his campaign managers getting arrested for fraud, the COVID-19 pandemic, his impeachment, and much, much more. Many of these issues have done heavy damage to his support in the suburbs, which has fallen even below his support in cities, as the New York Times explained. Thus, much of the convention’s programming was focused on these issues, glossing over Trump’s racism and sexism in the past and casting him as both an amicable ally of minorities and a champion of real action, mostly referring to the Paycheck Protection Program and the First Step Act. However, as the same New York Times article went on to explain, many suburban Republicans weren’t convinced, with one calling it “fake, false, a show.” This could be because the convention also featured popular conservative activists and polarizing figures like Charlie Kirk, who framed Trump as the defender of Western culture against radical socialism in his speech, and Mark and Patricia McCloskey, who were notably photographed pointing guns at peaceful protestors on their street. This split between two Trumps, Trump, the traditional moderate conservative, versus Trump, the only thing holding back America from losing its culture and heritage, definitely seems more confusing than unifying for people looking to find the good in their President.

The convention’s messaging displayed a clear strategy for Republican messaging this year: give suburban Republicans their reason to vote for Trump with a law and order campaign while also appealing massively to his base with nationalism, police solidarity, and name-calling at opponents. But will this strategy be enough to expand Trump’s approval and vote share past his hard-earned hardcore base? It doesn’t look like Americans are convinced. A Siena College/NYT poll conducted last week in Minnesota and Wisconsin found that voters were still far more trusting of Joe Biden on issues like race relations (56/37), unifying America (53/38), the coronavirus (52/41), and handling protests (51/42). There’s time left to go in the election yet, but this strategy may have less success than campaigning mostly on issues like the economy, where Trump leads over Biden in the same poll (50/45). Nothing in the convention’s program indicated that this would be a selling point of his, so it seems unlikely that he’ll make such a pivot.


How will this impact the future of the Republican Party?

At the Democratic convention, we saw many of this cycle’s Presidential hopefuls come back to solidify their political fame and relations with the party, potentially signaling the future leaders of the party. Did the RNC feature such hopefuls and layout their future leadership? Well, yes and no. Many major speakers from the Republican establishment who once criticized Trump, including Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul, got a notable amount of speaking time, but far more time was given to Trump’s direct associates like his family and administration staff, including Donald Trump Jr.’s girlfriend Kimberly Guilfoyle, Trump’s embattled personal attorney Rudy Giuliani, and his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. By all indications, the GOP plans to continue riding the “Trump train” for as long as possible but plans on similar unifying leaders after his term seem to be in short supply. The good news for Trump is that it seems his voters are okay staying in this territory of following big personalities instead of an establishment: an LA Times poll conducted in August showed that a solid majority of registered Republicans prefer Trump’s populist policies and messaging and want him to have the same or more influence within the party. At least for now, the party looks like it has a vision for the future: elevate people close to Trump and appeal to its populist and rural base.

What the RNC has shown to Americans, in every aspect of analysis, is that Donald Trump and anyone who attaches their name to his must navigate a long road of rocky terrain to be elected this November. Much of the messaging that works for Trump’s base isn’t enough to assemble a nationwide majority but appeals to traditional conservatives in the suburbs so far also haven’t gotten the success that Trump had hoped. After Donald Trump leaves office, the party also has to decide between following its traditional conservative roots or building on the populist base of the past four years. So far, little work has been done to unify the party towards a particular path, meaning that soon the party will have to make a tough choice and leave some voters behind, which could cost them dearly in the future.


Discussion Questions:

  • Will Trumpism have long term effects on the Republican Party?

  • Did the RNC help or hurt President Trump’s election chances?

  • Is the GOP becoming the party of Trump?

  • Will the GOP return to its conservative roots after President Trump leaves office?


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