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Aug 26, 20208 min read

What are the Democrats’ chances of taking back the U.S. Senate this election?

By Ford McCracken


When discussing the pathways to Democrats retaking the United States Senate, there are several different avenues possible that could lead to a democratic majority. The current balance of power in the Senate is 53-47, a Republican majority. Because of this, Democrats need a net gain of at least 3 seats this election, but that number could go up if they are unable to hold on to every seat they currently control. Considering Senate terms are only 6 years, only a handful of seats are up for election each year. Democrats enter the 2020 Election with a slight advantage, 35 seats, while Republicans enter with 30. The remaining seats are outlined in tiers; tier one being the safe states, tier two being the likely holds, tier three being the likely flips, and tier four being the toss-ups.


Tier 1 (safe states)

Balance of Power: D: 44, R: 41

Based on current public voter data, there are several states that can be considered safe for Senate candidates in their respective parties. For the Republican Party, this includes Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alaska. The Democratic Party also has some safe states: Oregon, Illinois, Minnesota, Virginia, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Delaware. These are states that will probably go to the party that currently holds them by a definitive margin.



Tier 2 (likely holds)

Balance of power: D: 46, R: 45

The next group of states in this tier are still competitive, but they are also likely to remain in the control of the party that holds it now.


Kentucky: This seat is currently held by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R), and he is facing a strong challenger, Democrat Amy McGrath. The DNC is pouring money into this race, evidenced by McGrath’s 4 million dollar fundraiser the day she announced her candidacy. Despite these efforts, Mitch McConnell still holds a fairly strong lead against McGrath. Democrats have made a valiant effort, but it looks like this one is still going to the GOP.


South Carolina: This seat is currently held by Senator Lindsay Graham (R), and it is another expensive race as he faces Democratic challenger, Jaime Harrison. Harrison has actually out-fundraised Graham, despite South Carolina being a typically Republican state. Even with the fundraising efforts, no poll has shown Harrison ahead at this point. This race remains close, however, as a recent poll from Quinnipiac University showed the race tied at 44%. There is a reason this race is still considered a likely GOP hold, however. A large number of voters are still undecided, and since President Trump is ahead by a comfortable margin in South Carolina, it seems likely that many of the undecided voters will vote down party lines and break for Graham. If this were not a presidential election year, Democrats may have a better shot, but Trump is definitely helping these down-ballot races, or races that voters may not be as informed in so they just vote with the same party as they vote for on the presidential level, in states such as South Carolina.


Kansas: This seat does not have an incumbent seeking reelection this year, so Kansas recently wrapped up its Republican Primary to decide who will take a shot at defeating the Democratic opponent, Barbara Boilier. It previously appeared as if Kris Kobach would win the Republican Primary, something Democrats were hoping for, as he has proven problematic for Republicans in the past. Kobach was a candidate for Governor of Kansas in 2018 and lost to Democrat Laura Kelly despite Kansas being a traditionally Republican state. Senator Mitch McConnell was even spending money in this race to make sure Kobach did not win the primary. McConnell’s efforts worked, as Roger Marshall is officially the Republican running for the seat. He is far more popular than Kobach, which is why this seat is likely to remain in the Republican column this year.


Texas: Incumbent Senator John Cornyn (R) has kept a fairly low profile during his time in the Senate, compared to his colleague from Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz (R). Democrats led a massive effort to unseat Senator Cruz in 2018 and came very close (a 2 point margin) to doing so. Cornyn, however, does not have the name recognition that Cruz has which is actually helping his reelection chances. Despite Biden leading in many of the Texas polls, Cornyn has remained ahead of Democratic challenger, MJ Hegar, by a likely margin.


New Mexico and Michigan: Both incumbents are Democrats who have remained popular in their states throughout their terms and are likely to hold on to their seats with no notable Republican challengers in either race.


Tier 3 (likely flips)

Balance of power: D: 48, R: 46

This next group of seats represents states where the incumbents are extremely unpopular, and the opposing party is likely to force a flip in November.


Alabama: This seat is currently held by Sen. Doug Jones (D), who was elected in a special election in 2017. Alabama is a deep red state, and unfortunately for Senator Jones, he was only elected in the first place because of accusations against his Republican opponent, Roy Moore. Voters ultimately found these claims too concerning and broke party lines to prevent him from taking office. This is unusual considering Trump has a net 28 point approval rating in the state of Alabama. Jones' opponent now is former Auburn Football Coach Tommy Tuberville (R). Tuberville is popular in the state of Alabama and has led Jones in most of the polls. Due to these circumstances, it is unlikely that Jones will win reelection.


Colorado: This seat is held by Senator Cory Gardner (R). He was elected by an extremely narrow margin in 2014, and he is not in good standings in the current polls. Colorado, which went blue for the first time in a while in 2008, does not show any signs of wavering loyalty to the Democratic Party. Since then, Colorado has become a Democratic state, hence why Sen. Gardner is not doing well. His Democratic challenger is former Gov. John Hickenlooper, who also ran for President in 2020. If the polls hold true on election day, Hickenlooper is expected to even out-perform Biden in the state of Colorado.


Arizona: This seat is held by Senator Martha McSally (R), who recently lost her 2018 election bid to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D). She still made it to the Senate, however, as after her 2018 loss, former Senator John McCain passed away, creating a vacancy in his Arizona Senate seat. In a situation of this nature, the sitting governor gets to choose who should fill the seat, and the Governor of Arizona chose McSally. Unfortunately for her, Arizonans are not happy that someone they voted against still secured a seat in the Senate. This is heavily boosting Democratic challenger Mark Kelly’s election chances. He is up by as much as 19 points in some polls, making this seat extremely likely to flip.


Tier 4 (toss-up)

Balance of power: D: 50, R: 50

This next group of states may lean slightly towards one party, but no candidate has a definite lead. These states could go either way on election day, but most of them currently lean one way or the other.


Montana: Republican Steve Daines appeared to have a pretty strong hold on this open seat early in the election season. That was until Montana Governor Steve Bullock entered the race. Bullock was a very popular governor during his time in office, and he quickly swung the polls in his favor. Recently however, Daines has begun leading in most of the polls again. This race even a few weeks ago would have probably been rated as leaning Democrat, but with the current data, it appears to be leaning GOP. This could very well change again before election day, so don’t count Bullock out yet.


Iowa: Incumbent Senator Joni Ernst (R) has taken an interesting approach to reelection—embracing President Trump. This is something many Senate candidates have avoided, considering President Trump’s low approval ratings. It is even more surprising when you consider that Trump has a narrow lead in Iowa. She even spoke at the Republican National Convention. Her approval of President Trump is helping her now, but it is unclear if that will pay off on Election Day. Trump currently holds on to around a 1-point lead in the state of Iowa, very similar to Ernst. The Democratic challenger, Teresa Greenfield, has been gaining ground recently, and she very well could win this tight race. However, it appears that this Senate election will probably go the same way as Iowa goes on the presidential level. Trump is currently favored to win Iowa, which is helping Ernst right now. But if Biden begins to take the lead in Iowa, and even goes on to win it, it is likely he will take Greenfield with him. Despite this possibility, at the moment Ernst has a slight advantage in possibly the closest Senate race in the country.


Georgia: Georgia actually has both Senate seats available this year. The first is held by David Perdue (R), who is facing a tough reelection battle against Democratic opponent Jon Ossoff. This race has been neck and neck, with the latest poll showing Ossoff up by 2. This race will most likely be affected by the results of the Presidential election as well. As of now, Perdue seems to have the advantage as Trump leads, but Georgia, both Senate and Presidential, continues to swing back and forth and will likely change again by election day. If Biden can win Georgia’s 16 electoral votes on election night, he could affect down-ballot races across the state, causing Ossoff to be carried to victory.


Georgia also has a special election where incumbent Kelly Loeffler, who was recently appointed by Gov. Brian Kemp, faces off against multiple challengers from both parties. Since this is a special election, there can be multiple challengers from both parties. The concern here for the Democrats’ chances is that the two Republicans in the race, Loeffler and Collins, seem to be leading in the polls. This race will likely go into a runoff due to the sheer number of candidates running, which will automatically be triggered if no candidate gets over 50%. If the top two candidates on election night are the two Republicans, it becomes impossible for Democrats to win—even in a runoff. This seat could even be considered as likely GOP, but Democrats could still win even if they don’t take the #1 spot on election night. As long as the Democrats can beat one of the Republicans, they still have a shot at this seat in a runoff.


North Carolina: Incumbent Senator Thom Tillis (R) is facing a difficult challenge in Democrat Cal Cunningham. Almost every poll shows Cunningham ahead by 5 points or more, but there is still hope for Tillis. Trump is narrowing North Carolina on the Presidential level, and if he continues to improve his standing in a state that hasn’t gone blue since 2008, Tillis could narrow this race or even win. As it stands now, however, Cunningham has a consistent lead and is expected to flip this seat for the Dems.


Maine: Senator Susan Collins (R) has historically been one of the most popular Senators in the country. First elected in the 1990s, she was one of the most bipartisan senators and was consistently reelected in a blue state. However, during Trump’s presidency, she has voted with him on the issues 67% of the time, which has disappointed Maine Democrats. Maine Republicans have also not been happy that Collins hasn’t voted consistently enough with Trump, causing her to go from the most popular Senator to possibly the most unpopular. This does not fare well for her reelection chances as she faces a difficult reelection bid against Democratic opponent Sarah Gideon. Gideon has led by a consistent margin of around 5 points throughout the election cycle and has a considerable advantage heading into election day. While this race is similar to that of Colorado and Arizona, Gideon will likely not win by nearly as much as Hickenlooper or Kelly on election day, which is why it remains lean Democrat as opposed to being likely.


What happens in a 50-50 balance of power?

This scenario, if it holds true, would depend entirely on what happens at the Presidential level. If Biden and Harris can win, Harris would break the tie on votes that end up 50-50, giving Democrats the Senate majority. However, if Trump and Pence win reelection, this would mean Republicans hold onto their current majority.


Discussion Questions

  • What will be the impacts of a Democratic majority senate on domestic policy?

  • What impact does Biden’s nomination have on the chances of a Democratic majority senate?

  • How will the foreign policy of a Democratic senate differ from the status quo?


Sources Used/Further Reading

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