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By: Kelly Hu
In March 2020, along with most of the world, Europe was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. By mid to late May, most European countries had successfully slowed outbreaks. However, the loosening of precautionary behaviors during the summer has caused COVID-19 cases and deaths to rise across the continent, showing that Europe is undoubtedly experiencing a second wave of COVID-19.
The Numbers
In many European countries, the level of confirmed infections is currently much higher than in March when the pandemic first began. In fact, at the end of October, the European Union (EU) overtook the United States in the number of new coronavirus cases per capita. Europe’s coronavirus resurgence is being led by several countries that also led the first wave such as Belgium, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain. The second wave also includes several countries that did not experience as dramatic of a wave in early March like Poland and the Czech Republic.
Additionally, the peak in case numbers in October is exponentially higher than that of early April. France’s new peak is over 26,000 new daily cases, over three times higher than their earlier peak. The United Kingdom initially had a peak number of almost 8,000 daily cases, which has now jumped to a new peak of over 17,000. Spain has recorded over 30,000 cases in a week, with more than 20,000 coming from the Madrid region alone. But both Italy and Germany have lagged slightly behind other countries and are only now seeing numbers rising dramatically.
However, two European countries stand out with overwhelmingly high case numbers: Belgium and the Czech Republic. Belgium and the Czech Republic are currently reporting about 146 and 115 new daily cases per 100,000 people respectively, which is dramatically higher than the European Union average of 33 new daily cases per 100,000 people. With the number of available tests rising, the positivity rate of tests rose in both countries from mid-September to late October, with rates in Belgium rising from 2% to over 18% and in the Czech Republic from 4% to nearly 30%.
It is important to note that higher case numbers compared to the first wave does not necessarily correlate with higher hospitalization and death rates in some countries. For example, while the Czech Republic is experiencing far worse cases, hospitalization, and death rates than their first wave, Spain’s hospitalizations and deaths are not as high as their peak in the first wave.
The Causes
Europe’s high infection rate could be due to expanded testing that has turned up far more asymptomatic positives during the first wave. But while the rising numbers may be partially attributed to an increased amount of testing, the second wave of COVID-19 in Europe is largely due to the numerous political and social factors.
In general, the blame has been placed on governments for failing to impose public health measures quicker and prepare for the expected autumn wave earlier. Coronavirus prevention measures, such as mask mandates, were relaxed far too early when cases were still moderately high. For example, measures in Belgium were loosened when there were still 1,661 new cases per day. Restrictions were also lifted before adequate testing and tracing systems were implemented in countries such as the Czech Republic. The importance of implementing adequate systems before measures are lifted has been clear in Italy and Germany, whose numbers are slightly lower than their European counterparts due to the breadth of mask-wearing and the efficacy of test and trace systems. Countries are also still underprepared, facing a shortage of tests, hospital beds, and medical resources.
Political tensions have prevented effective guidelines from being imposed. In Spain, an already fragile government with a recent minority coalition, Catalan separatists, and disagreement between political parties was worsened by the pandemic. As a result, any measures taken to combat the virus have been dissented greatly between politicians, decreasing effectiveness and worsening the pandemic. In the Czech Republic, strict measures were postponed until after the senate elections in early October to prevent further political dissent from the people.
European governments and public health experts are also now facing a surge in anti-mask protests, as citizens are simply sick and tired of social distancing guidelines and other restrictions. Growing discontent amongst the population of most European countries has caused more and more people to ignore public health guidelines, leading to an increase in cases. The World Health Organization has called this issue “COVID-fatigue” and has shifted attention to how to nudge virus-weary Europeans to keep up their guard.
What is Being Done
In recent weeks, many European leaders have announced targeted, regional social distancing restrictions in response to the second wave. However, no national lockdowns have been put in place yet. France has reimposed restrictions on urban areas, including limiting the capacity at restaurants and closing gyms. Spain has introduced travel restrictions but has been met with intense protest and political dissent. Similarly, the United Kingdom has opted for a three-tier alert system, labeling the severity of outbreaks as a medium, high, and very high. Germany’s capital of Berlin entered a curfew as well.
Other measures have been taken as well. Spain recently declared a state of emergency for Madrid amid a huge rise in cases and tensions between authorities. Germany offered for soldiers to assist with contact tracing systems in newly flaring hotspots. Italy has mandated masks outdoors and warned that for the first time since Spring, the healthcare system was facing “significant critical issues”.
COVID-19 is devastating millions of European lives as well as the countries’ economic well being. It is clear that despite growing political and social discontent amidst the pandemic, combatting the coronavirus should remain everyone’s utmost priority.
Discussion Questions
How can the international community best aid Europe during its second wave of COVID-19?
What steps can the EU take to aid migrants during the pandemic?
How should European countries best circumvent political tensions caused by the pandemic?
What lessons can Europe learn from East Asian countries’ COVID-19 response?
Sources Used/Further Reading
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