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By: Anushka Kumar
On August 13th, 2020, the UAE, otherwise known as the United Arab Emirates, and Israel signed the Abraham Accord. This indicated the start of peaceful relations between the two nations with talks being brokered by the United States.
While they have the support of many Western nations such as the United States, Israel has been historically isolated in the Middle East since its formation post-WW2. Many Arab nations believe that the state was unjustly taken away from the Palestinian people and as a result, many countries in the region refuse to acknowledge Israel. This resulted in a plethora of conflicts during the second half of the 20th century known as the Arab-Israel wars. In fact, until now, only two nations in the region, Jordan and Egypt, have normalized relations with Israel, and there, unfortunately, was no drastic impact in terms of trade. The World Bank estimates that exports from Egypt to Israel were less than half a billion dollars in 2018, with Jordan looking starker at less than $80 million both ways. In total, Israel’s trade with Arab states is less than $1 billion dollars.
What exactly is the Abraham Accord?
The Abraham Accord established a direct line of trading between the UAE and Israel. This is particularly significant because, in the past, trade between the two nations had to occur through a third party such as Singapore or Cyprus. Israel also agreed to halt annexation of the West Bank, an area of land that remains disputed in the Middle East. Prospects for direct commercial flights between Israel and the UAE are being finalized. Small domestic companies such as Israel’s Bo&Bo Ltd are projected to receive about $1 billion in additional revenues by working with UAE firms. Moreover, because the US and Israel remain strong allies, the UAE hopes to capitalize on a relationship with the US through Israel. Specifically, they hope to gain access to US military equipment such as F35 fighter jets.
What prompted the Abraham Accord?
For starters, relations between the UAE and Israel have been warming for the past few decades. The UAE didn’t participate in the Arab-Israeli wars, and the two nations quietly began to develop relations in the 1990s. Moreover, the population of the UAE primarily is composed of primarily foreigners, a group of people more likely to be receptive to Israel than the native Arab population. What seemed to be the turning point of negotiations was the current leader of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu’s choice to delay Israel’s annexation of the West Bank. This was a source of much controversy in the Middle Eastern region, as the West Bank has been dictated to be Palestinian territory, yet Israel continues to illegally take over that territory for their own. However, some analysts argue that their mutual rivalry against Iran may have been the most important catalyst since both parties believe that the country is pushing for a “political Islam” narrative, where religion is prioritized over the secular rule.
What impact will this deal have on the Middle East?
Israel and Palestine Relations: Israel and Palestine relations have been sour since the creation of the Israeli state, as land to create it was taken from Palestine. However recently, it seems that conflict has only escalated between the two nations, specifically with Israel’s plans to illegally annex land that lies under Palestinian sovereignty (West Bank). Therefore, with the halting of Israel’s West Bank annexation under the signing of this accord, it was assumed that relations between Israel and Palestine would have the potential to improve. Unfortunately, this seems to be the opposite of reality. Because Palestine views this new relationship as fracturing the previously unified Arab stance against Israel, they’ve chosen to recall their ambassador from Abu Dhabi and reject the accord altogether. Since over the past few months, Israel and the US have continued to push their own agenda in the region, such as aggression on the Gaza strip and the movement of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem (in Palestine), Palestine views the UAE’s deal as a signal that they support such measures and are therefore against the securing of a Palestinian state. With human rights abuses against Palestinian citizens becoming normalized under the Israeli state, the prospects of Palestine gravitating towards a “two-state” solution with Israel seems unlikely.
Israel and Iran: Iran’s nuclear program has grown to be a major threat in the region, but Israel’s isolation from the Middle East accounted for a lack of cohesive action in the area to counter it. However, amidst a major power like the UAE formalizing relations with Israel, Iranian politicians fear that this could lead to a strong alliance standing against their country. Especially since COVID-19 has devastated Iran in outbreaks unlike what has been seen in the international community, Iran fears destabilization amidst the events surrounding it.
Israel and Other Middle Eastern Relations: The Abraham Accord seems to have prompted other Middle Eastern nations to begin trade talks with Israel. Bahrain has openly come out and applauded the deal, with previous indications showing that the nation may be negotiating with Israel themselves. Israel is currently negotiating with Saudi Arabia to allow direct flights to pass through their air space. Morocco is also working with Israel to allow direct flights between the two nations. The leaders of Oman and Israel are negotiating as well. In general, the UAE’s willingness to broker a deal with Israel has created a cascade effect across the Middle East and has prompted other nations to step up and do the same.
However, it is important to note that many Arab nations are unwilling to work with Israel unless there is a proper agreement established between themselves and Palestine.
So at the end of the day, while Israel still faces much controversy in the Middle Eastern region, they have opened new doors to trade through the establishment of the Abraham Accord.
Discussion Questions:
What steps can be taken to ensure peace between Israel and Palestine is reached?
Will Israel be able to establish a strong trading presence in the Middle East following the Abraham Accord?
Which actor in the Middle East is best positioned to broker peace between Israel and Palestine?
Is Iran likely to strengthen its relationship with Russia and China in light of the Abraham Accord?
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