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By: Annika Hesse
Despite being the most influential trading bloc next to the European Union, many people have never heard of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations or ASEAN. Headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, ASEAN promotes the economic growth of 10 countries located south of China. Current member countries include Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Its main objective is to “accelerate the economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the region through joint endeavors in the spirit of equality and partnership in order to strengthen the foundation for a prosperous and peaceful community of Southeast Asian Nations”. In 2017, its gross domestic product was $2.77 trillion which was roughly a third of China’s $25.3 trillion GDP, and an increase of almost four and a half times the GDP value in 2000.
How was ASEAN established?
ASEAN was established on August 8th in 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand with the signing of the ASEAN Declaration by the five original member countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. It had replaced the Association of Southeast Asia (ASA), which had been formed in 1961 by the Philippines, Thailand, and the Federation of Malaya (now known as Malaysia). Although the fledgling trading bloc was somewhat fragile in its early years, ASEAN achieved a new cohesion in the mid-1970s after a change in the balance of power following the Vietnam War. ASEAN’s first summit meeting was held in 1976 in Bali, Indonesia, and it resulted in the signing of a Treaty of Amity and Cooperation and a Declaration of Concord. The treaty served to promote perpetual peace, everlasting amity, and cooperation among the people of Southeast Asia which would contribute to their strength, solidarity, and closer relationship. Following the signing of the treaty, the countries within the trading bloc experienced dynamic economic growth, allowing them to adopt a unified response to Vietnam’s invasion of Cambodia in 1979. ASEAN condemned Vietnam for invading Cambodia, however, in doing so, they indirectly backed the Khmer Rouge, the Communist Party of Kampuchea which is responsible for the genocide of 1.5-2 million Cambodian minorities, roughly 25% of the Cambodian population. Their intervention in this conflict is often criticized, but other than that ASEAN has remained generally non-interventionist.
In the 1980s, following the end of the Cold War, ASEAN exercised greater political power in the region, and in the 1990s ASEAN emerged as a leading voice on regional trade and security issues. For instance, to solve the disputes in the South China Sea, ASEAN promoted dialogue on regional security by establishing the ASEAN Regional Forum and worked to resolve the conflict in East Timor. In 1992, the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement was drafted by members (which now included Brunei Darussalam) to reduce intraregional tariffs and ease restrictions on foreign investment. Between then and 1999, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia joined the trading bloc, making up what is today the ten member states of ASEAN. To signal, ASEAN’s commitment to international diplomacy, human rights, and democratic values, all ten member states signed the ASEAN charter in 2007. The charter entered into force on December 15th, 2008 following its ratification. The charter gave the organization status as a legal entity, increased ASEAN summit meetings, and established the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights.
How do ASEAN summit meetings work?
ASEAN summit meetings are held biannually and allow the heads of state of ASEAN members to come together and conduct business. Relations between ASEAN and the leaders of China, the Republic of Korea, and Japan are conducted through ASEAN Plus Three which meets annually. This group was formed in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis which started in Thailand with the financial collapse of the Thai baht (the currency of Thailand). As the crisis spread, most of Southeast Asia and Japan saw slumping currencies, devalued stock markets and other asset prices, and a precipitous rise in private debt. In contrast, ASEAN Plus Six which includes the ASEAN Plus Three and Australia, India, and New Zealand was created to increase the capacity of the Group to invest in the commercial potential and to compete with other regions such as the EU. The East Asia Summit consists of ASEAN Plus Six and Russia and the United States. Between ASEAN summit meetings the organization’s business is directed by a standing committee consisting of the foreign minister of the host country of the ministerial conferences and ambassadors from the other countries.
How does ASEAN feel about China?
ASEAN member states continue to be concerned about China's threat to ASEAN countries' maritime rights in the South China Sea. The South China Sea runs right through ASEAN's territory. It is a hotly contested group of tiny islands that see 15 million barrels of oil per day and 4.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. One of the most invaluable aspects of the South China Sea is the South China shipping lane through which half of the world's merchant fleet tonnage, representing $5.3 trillion in global trade. Additionally, one-third of the world's crude oil is also shipped through the Sea. China has been pushing further into the South China Sea by building islands. This dispute is of great concern to the United States as $1.2 trillion of the trade that goes through the sea winds up at U.S. ports. On February 15, 2016, President Barack Obama held a historic U.S.-ASEAN Summit where he pledged U.S. support for ASEAN rights in the South China Sea. Many fear that rivalry over competing claims in the South China Sea could lead to armed conflict in the region.
How are the US-China tensions affecting ASEAN?
The conflict in the South China Sea has been worsened by the US-China rivalry. Although the US and China have always had a complicated trade relationship, the bitter trade battle between the world's two largest economies has intensified over the past couple of years. The rise in tension can be attributed to former US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership as well as the imposition of tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of one another's goods. Despite being caught in the middle of the trade war, ASEAN member states have tried to remain neutral so they might benefit from both powers. However, if the U.S.-China rivalry intensifies to the point that they will force regional countries to choose sides, individual countries will have to do whatever is relevant to protect their national interests. That being said, a survey released by the State of Southeast Asia found that 61.5% of respondents favor aligning with the U.S. over China if the region was forced to pick sides. That’s an increase from 53.6% who chose the U.S. over China in the same survey a year ago. This most likely has to do with the recent election of President Joe Biden and the early signs showing the Biden administration will focus more on the region in the coming years.
When looking at ASEAN, its history, and its current conflicts, it is hard to deny its influence in the Asian and even global market. Though less prominent than the European Union, ASEAN has accomplished what it has set out to do while maintaining national sovereignty. Only time will tell how they fare when faced with increasingly controversial conflicts such as the US-China rivalry, but the future is bright for the trading bloc of the east.
Discussion Questions:
Will the Biden administration be successful in resolving the US-China rivalry?
What will push ASEAN to side with either the US or China?
Should ASEAN push more interventionist policies?
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