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By Ford McCracken
Following the results of the 2021 Senate Runoff Election in the State of Georgia, Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock were elected to the United States Senate. While Ossoff will enjoy a six-year term ahead of him, Warnock is left to fend for his seat again in 2022, given that he only won a special election. Considering the noticeably close margins in both senate races this year, and in the presidential race in Georgia, it seems that Republicans would be fighting over who gets to run to attempt to unseat Warnock in 2022. Key household names in Georgia politics such as former Congressman Doug Collins, former Senator David Perdue (who briefly filed paperwork to run), and former Senator Kelly Loeffler (who Warnock beat the first time) have all declined the opportunity to run. In addition, so has the Lieutenant Governor of Georgia, Geoff Duncan, a sharp critic of those in his own party who pushed false claims of election fraud to attempt to invalidate President Biden’s win in the Peach State.
Some other names have expressed interest in running, such as Herschel Walker, the former UGA football player, and President Trump-encouraged candidate, former Congressman Buddy Carter, and current Congressman Drew Ferguson, both from Georgia. However, none of these candidates have actually declared, meanwhile the ones who lack name recognition in the state. This poses a problem for Republicans, who are depending on a jump-start in this competitive Senate race, one Republicans need to win in order to take back the Senate. As Georgia Republicans try to decide who the best choice is to face Warnock, it’s safe to ask if they even have a shot at winning the race.
Why did this problem arise in the first place?
Unpopularity
One issue that Georgia Republicans are currently facing is the fact that they simply are not popular in their own state. The Republican Party has had full control of Georgia for decades, and after one narrow election victory, the Democrats seem to be running away with popular support. According to a poll by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution taken in late January, President Biden had a net approval rating of Approve +11. For Senator Warnock, that rating is Approve +17. Senator Ossoff is Approve +10, Stacey Abrams is Approve +10, and the Democratic Party is Approve +6. Every single one of these ratings is higher than the margin of victory by any statewide Democrat in the November or January elections, adding to the surprise of the results. This might hint that approval rating doesn’t necessarily affect the election results, or it could represent that the moves made by the Georgia GOP since the elections have reflected negatively on them in the minds of voters. Still, Republicans can’t boast those same numbers; Former President Trump has a rating of Disapprove +18, with Governor Kemp at Disapprove +8 and the Republican Party at Disapprove +25. A twenty-five-point net disapproval for the party that has governed Georgia for decades and that only suffered a narrow loss in the recent elections is unprecedented, and it cannot signal anything positive for 2022.
Could this be the reason that Georgia Republicans don’t want to face Warnock? Do they think they’ll lose? It’s certainly a possibility that Republicans must come to terms with as they challenge an incumbent. Even in the races where they are the incumbents there seem to be some causes for concern. The Governor of Georgia, Brian Kemp, will be up for election in 2022 as well. Kemp is one of the Republicans with the “best” approval rating, and this could potentially be attributed to his refusal to challenge the election results in his state. But Kemp only won after a narrow race against Stacey Abrams in 2018, and Democrats still have a feeling that voter suppression played a role in that. For instance, Kemp was the Secretary of State that oversaw his own election in 2018, raising a lot of questions about how seriously his office would take concerns of voter suppression. Currently, while Kemp’s popularity seems to be on the decline, Abrams has only increased in both popularity and name recognition, charged with being responsible for major Democratic gains in the 2020 election. Abrams has not officially announced her candidacy for the governorship, but it would not be a surprise to see her toss her name into the race, especially given the 18 point gap in approval between her and Kemp that could lead her to run away with that election.
Of course, approval ratings can only tell us so much, as often incumbents that are disapproved of still earn a higher share of the vote than those polls might indicate (a good example is President Trump in 2020). Not to mention these polls could shift drastically before 2022 if Biden and the Democrats begin trending toward unpopularity. But if things hold the way they are now, Georgia Republicans have major causes for concern in 2022, so it shouldn’t be surprising to see them back away from the most popular Democrat in the State of Georgia.
Voting Restrictions and Election Fraud
There has been quite a bit of discussion regarding Georgia’s new restrictive voting law that passed the legislature and was signed into law by Gov. Kemp, as well as the other bills proposed by Republicans in several states around the country. Georgia’s bill made more headlines than any of the others have so far, with top companies like the MLB denouncing the bill and moving jobs out of Georgia–forcing a hit to the state’s economy. But despite state Republicans dismissing the move as evidence of “cancel culture”, the bill itself is not popular among Georgia voters. There are certain provisions of the Georgia law that are more popular than others, but polls conducted by YouGov and UGA/AJC break it down by each part of the bill.
In terms of the most widely discussed aspects of the bill, the provision banning partisan groups from handing out food or water to voters waiting in line is certainly the most unpopular–polling shows that Georgia voters disapprove of the ban 69-18. The provision that makes ballot drop boxes only accessible during normal voting hours and inside the facilities is disapproved of 59-37 in the AJC poll. There are certain parts of the bill that are popular, such as voter ID requirements, which are approved of 74-22. A provision of the bill that did not end up passing was the requirement for voters to have an excuse to vote absentee, which was disapproved of 55-43. In terms of the prevention of automatically mailing ballots to voters, even those that didn’t request them are disapproved of 49-47, a close margin. The bill has been widely criticized for disproportionately affecting Black voters and other voters of color, a group whose high turnout was almost certainly responsible for Democratic victories in the Peach State. A bill that targets these voters may not be smart politics, but it could hinder Democrats’ ability to win elections in the State of Georgia, which is a win for the Republicans, at least in the short term.
Overall what the polling data shows is that almost every provision in the Georgia voting bill is disapproved of, which could be a sign for Georgia Republicans that their already low approval ratings might continue to get lower. It’s important to recognize that with all of these provisions that made it easy to vote in 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic, Democrats won statewide in Georgia and won the Senate majority because of it. The actions taken by Republicans in the state, many of whom falsely claimed the election was stolen, are a clear signal that Republicans in Georgia don’t want to earn the votes of their constituents–they want to prevent their critics from voting. But that means that Republicans in Georgia who didn’t believe in the big lie are left with very little place in their own party. A potential senate candidate for 2022, Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, walked out of the room in protest when the Georgia General Assembly was voting on the bill, and we now see him backing out of the 2022 race. The Republicans that stand up to voting bills disenfranchising Black voters are not likely to win a statewide primary, and they certainly wouldn’t want to face up against the state’s first Black senator. Before the GOP can have any prayer of defeating Warnock in 2022, they need to decide if they want to be a party that represents Georgia voters.
Sources Used/Further Reading
Discussion Questions
Will the MLB’s decision to pull out of Georgia hurt or help Republicans in the state?
Who is currently the most likely Georgia Republican to run and win the primary?
Would a confirmation vote of Warnock by Georgia voters in 2022 be a solidification of the state’s blue status?
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