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By: Adithi Reddy
Since the United States Agency for International Aid (USAID) was founded in 1961, Ethiopia has been one of its key beneficiaries of economic and developmental assistance. During a drought in the mid-1970s, the USAID to Ethiopia also began to include humanitarian assistance, emergency relief, drought recovery loans, and food security programs. Ethiopia has largely been an asset to the United States due to its location in the horn of Africa, allowing the U.S to strengthen its initiatives there. In the past, aid has only been refused following 1974 when a socialist revolution put the country under Marxist rule until 1993 when the regime was overthrown and aid was restarted. Since then, the U.S’s objectives in Ethiopia have been the following:
Support for the reconstruction of basic education facilities
Importation of emergency pharmaceuticals
Transportation equipment for the private sector
Assistance in the prevention and control of AIDS
Support for democracy and governance initiatives
Training and technical assistance to advance economic reform
A relief program through assistance to displaced persons, including demobilized soldiers
A Title II program to address immediate food aid needs due to recurrent drought conditions.
Programs to support the integration of orphans into the community and provision of prosthetics for disabled veterans
However, in September 2020, the Trump administration approved a plan to halt foreign assistance to Ethiopia, a decision that could affect nearly $130 Billion (5,860,454,600 Ethiopian Birr) in U.S foreign assistance. The suspension of aid (which will not halt humanitarian aid) was meant to address the dispute between Ethiopia and other East African Countries over Ethiopia’s construction of a dam on the Nile River and was set to reduce money for initiatives such as:
Security assistance
Counterterrorism
Military education and training
Anti-human trafficking programs
What is the dispute over the dam construction on the Nile?
Ethiopia began construction on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam(GERD) in 2011 after years of arguing their right to utilize the Nile’s resources since Ethiopia’s highlands supply more than 85% of the water that flows into the Nile. However, other riparian countries (countries situated around the Nile river) are in opposition to the project. Egypt, in particular, sees the dam as a security issue since the country is heavily dependent on the river for fresh water and, in the face of it, has repeatedly cited a 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan as reasoning to combat the construction of the dam. The aforementioned agreement allocated all the Nile’s water to Egypt and Sudan, as well as bestowing Egypt with veto power over all future Nile River projects. Naturally, Ethiopia and other riparian states not included in the agreement refuse to accept it. A lack of a mutually accepted legal framework for the allocation of the Nile waters has only worsened the dispute. Sudan is caught in the middle as they are both opposed to the dam for fear of it threatening their own dams and developmental projects and optimistic about its potential for domestic economic and infrastructural development. Ethiopian officials claim GERD will not impact water flow and will be beneficial to the counties in the region, supplying them with affordable electricity and management of the Nile’s waters. However, Egypt is worried that in the instance of a drought, Ethiopia will not release enough water from the dam to help them. As a defensive precaution, Egypt has been pushing for the dam to be slowly filled over a long period of time. Sudan and Egypt demanded Ethiopia not start filling the dam until they reached a tripartite legally binding agreement that would address how to manage water flows during droughts or dryer rainy seasons, as well as a mechanism to resolve disputes regarding the dam. However, in July of 2020, Ethiopia announced that it had finalized the first phase of filling the dam, sparking backlash from Egypt and Sudan and prompting the U.S to consider cutting aid until a deal had been made. The issue is extremely sensitive because the dam is a huge infrastructure project and a monument of national pride and cultural significance to the Ethiopian people since it is in large part funded by their individual donations.
What does it mean for the suspension of Aid to be de-linked from the Dam Dispute?
In February of 2022, the Biden administration announced their plan to de-link the freeze on aid with the conflict over GERD, reversing the Trump administration’s move. They are hoping this will de-escalate tensions with Ethiopians, of whom many believe bias and favoritism towards Egypt played a role in the original decision to cut off aid. The State Department reported that the suspension of aid affected approximately $23 million in security assistance and roughly $249 million in development assistance (which includes health, education, economic growth, and democracy programs). However, the de-linking does not mean all the money that was affected will immediately begin flowing again.
More specifically, U.S. officials are waiting until further developments in the deadly Tigray region crisis in Ethiopia are known. Currently, in said region, there is an ongoing armed, military conflict between the central government of Ethiopia and forces in the northern region under the control of Tigray’s dominant political party. An estimated 50,000 civilians have died in the conflict, many from starvation and lack of resources due to the fighting that is cutting off access to main roads. Until there is a further resolution of the conflict as well as a more concrete, legal deal between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the filling of the dam and mechanisms for releasing water in emergent instances, the flow of monetary aid is uncertain. The U.S, along with the EU and African Union, will also continue to help mediate negotiations between the key riparian states, aiming to defuse tensions especially with Egypt whose president, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, has hinted at war in the past if Ethiopia continues on its course unilaterally. For now, Ethiopia will continue to receive mainly humanitarian assistance and resources until further talks between governing powers.
Discussion Questions
What does the continuing dispute mean for the future of Ethiopian International Relations?
How can the U.S dencentivize Ethiopia from moving ahead with the dam without further halting of aid?
What role with the ongoing Tigray crisis play in the construction of GERD?
Is Armed conflict between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia inevitable?
Sources Used/ Further Reading
Great article! Very informative