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By: Kelly Hu
Mali Series Part 2
The Political Crisis
For the past few years, the African country of Mali has struggled with an escalation in political instability and violence. Mass protests have persisted over government corruption, mismanagement of the economy, election disputes, and ongoing terrorism in the northern and eastern parts of the country. As a result of growing discontent and protests, on August 18, 2020, President Ibrahim Keïta was overthrown via a military coup and was forced to resign from office. As a result, the military council has named army officer Bah Ndaw as interim president of Mali who will oversee a transition period to democratically-elected civilian rule.
Effects on Peace and Security
The military coup left an important African nation with a leadership void and rising turmoil, inevitably affecting peace and security on the international level.
Violence caused by armed militant groups linked to ISIS and al-Qaeda is already increasing, but the military coup could only worsen instability by hurting counterinsurgency efforts. Although it was wildly unpopular amongst the people of Mali, former president Keïta was an extremely important partner for France in their peacekeeping missions and counterterrorism efforts. However, with the sudden change in leadership in Mali, the chances of France finding another stable partner for counterterrorism in the new government are unlikely. Additionally, working with the government formed by a military coup means recognizing it as legitimate, an action that could lead to international backlash, preventing France from continuing the partnership.
The new government could also face a decrease in foreign military assistance. The US has been another central actor in Mali’s counter-insurgency efforts through military aid to the government. However, laws restrict US military aid from being given to governments formed after coups. Therefore, it is likely that the US will stop its aid to Mali.
The military coup could also weaken the G5 Sahel Joint Force, a partnership of five states in Africa’s Sahel region - Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger - aimed at improving security and cooperation to counter-terrorism in the region. The sudden leadership change in Mali could negatively impact the joint regional operations conducted by and the diplomacy within the G5 Sahel Joint Force, which is also backed by the European Union.
The International Response to the Coup
Although the coup was welcomed by many people in Mali, it sparked international condemnation. Numerous countries do not recognize a government formed by a violent seizure of power. As a result, Mali has faced political and economic pressure to return to a democratic government ruled by civilians.
Economic Pressure: Many G5 Sahel members are considering sanctions on Mali and have already closed their borders. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), an organization that brings economic integration and diplomacy in Africa, mandated that its members closed their borders to the country and also demanded sanctions against Mali.
Political Pressure: Mali has been suspended from the African Union (AU) due to the “unconstitutional change of government” and ECOWAS’ internal decision-making bodies. Other entities such as the European Union (EU) and countries such as South Africa, Nigeria, China, and the United States have called for an “immediate return to civilian rule” and the “freeing of detained politicians”. In general, the international community has refused to recognize the military transition government as legitimate.
Economic pressure through actions such as sanctions and international political alienation of Mali’s new government will only destabilize the country even further until democratic elections have been held.
Future Steps for the International Community
With so much at stake in regards to security and intense international pressure to return to civilian rule, the international community must take steps to ensure fair democratic elections occur in Mali. There are numerous courses of action to pursue:
Election Observation Missions: Issues of voter fraud and corruption remain prominent in African countries. The implementation of election observation missions, including those of the African Union, can help deter voter fraud during the election, as the presence of nonpartisan election observers would help provide a nonpartial assessment of the election.
Independent Electoral Commissions: The creation of independent electoral commissions supported by the UN Development Program and International non-governmental organizations (NGOs) can help improve the electoral process. These commissions actively work to train local observers, assist in voter registration, vote monitoring, and collaborate with civil society groups.
Invest in Strengthening Domestic Governance: The international community could shift to a long term peace and security strategy that focuses on governance, particularly security force accountability near polling areas. By supporting the Malian people in making security decisions and holding the government accountable, this could help better election security, deter the need for more foreign security forces, and help to combat government corruption.
Discussion Questions
How can the international community respond to rising instability in the Sahel?
Will Mali’s military government survive until fair elections are held?
How will the negative international response impact Mali’s stability?
Sources Used/Further Reading
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