.png)
By Kay Rollins
Abiy Ahmed won the Nobel peace prize in 2019. In 2020, he may have started a civil war.
Beginning in October, Ahmed, the Ethiopian Prime Minister, began firing on the Tigray region of Ethiopia. The shots came after nearly two years of rising tensions between the Tigray region, a semi-autonomous region in northern Ethiopia, and the federal government led by Abiy who sought to centralize power. Given that the conflict extends outside of ethnic lines and more on regional ones, the regional use of Tigray will be used in this article. The Tigray region contains nearly 6 million people, and the ethnic group makes up nearly 8% of Ethiopia’s total population. This new conflict will likely lead to significant unrest in the region, both locally and internationally, making it a threat to worldwide stability.
Who are the Tigray?
The term Tigray refers to both an ethnic group and the region in which they reside in Northern Ethiopia. Although Tigray is a longstanding powerhouse in ancient and Middle Ages Africa, the recent conflict has continued to put the region in danger. During the 70s and 80s, the Tigrayan people led the fight against the dictator of Ethiopia, Mengistu Mariam, and succeeded in overthrowing him by 1991. As a result, the Tigrayans, led by the Tigray People's Liberation Army, were heroes in Ethiopia for years, and they gained National sympathy when, in the early 2000s, Ethiopian and Eritrean troops fought over a portion of the territory, endangering civilians. However, after losing their political power, they have faced ethnic persecution at the hands of the government (which currently faces accusations of genocide) and have been forced to flee their homes.
How did the conflict begin?
The Ethiopian state is composed largely of 10 ethnic regions, including the Tigray people. The most recent tensions between the Ethiopian state and the Tigray region began in 2019 after Ahmed tried to consolidate ethnic parties into the “Prosperity party” in an attempt to distance the nation from the ethnic federalist system. The establishment of this party would have combined all members of the current ruling coalition, including the TPLA, into one larger party. The proposal went against years of ethnic federalism, where governance is divided along ethnic lines and ethnic parties like the TPLA represent local interests. The TPLA subsequently refused to join, angering Ahmed. Given the decades of autonomy the Tigray region enjoyed under previous administrations, the region was largely detached from the federal rule, and so many considered 2018 plan to consolidate ethnic groups into a single party to be unjust. In defiance, the Tigray people held a regional election on September 9th, which the government treated as a display of autonomy in the face of the 2018 reforms. Shortly after, members of the Tigray People’s Liberation Army attacked an Ethiopian military base in the region, killing several Ethiopian troops. The Ethiopian government has responded by firing at the Tigray region, including at civilian locations, and by attempting to take some of the Tigray territories.
Since the first shots were fired in early November, the conflict has escalated significantly. Communications and services to the nearly 6 million people caught in the crossfire have been severed, preventing any ability to provide assistance or monitor abuses in the region. The Tigray People’s Liberation Army leaders, who have seen mounting opposition from the government, have fled from the fight into remote regions of Tigray. Last week, Ahmed declared victory over the group. However, as the weaker TPLA has begun to lose steam, they pose an even greater risk to the Tigray people: One advisor to the Tigray leaders said that, given falling troop counts, “It is possible to have the scenario where we stop everything and turn all the people into soldiers.” In simple terms: as a result of falling troop counts, the TPLA could force civilians into combat. Such a declaration raises human rights concerns of forced combat, as well as signaling that the war will not end without even greater bloodshed. Airstrikes, humanitarian aid blockades, and military abuse continue to threaten the lives of millions in the region, only adding to the rising poverty, famine, and water scarcity in Ethiopia. Although exact numbers are unknown, the International Red Cross discovered that the largest hospital in the Tigray region has run out of body bags over the weekend, suggesting that thousands may have died thus far.
What are the international implications?
Meanwhile, the crisis is already having international implications: Sudanese refugee camps have become overcrowded and filled with Ethiopian refugees, threatening stability in the nascent country. Al-Shabaab, a terrorist group in the horn of Africa, sees this crisis as an opportunity to expand their territory, as Ethiopian military forces, who were formerly devoted to combating them are now being diverted to the Tigray region. Given the number of displaced people and poor humanitarian conditions, Al-Shabaab could also use this as an opportunity to exploit these vulnerable communities. The magnitude of the crisis has prompted international intervention, with Ahmed agreeing last Friday to allow humanitarian aid into the parts of Tigray which the government controls. However, the international community has been unable to get Ahmed to negotiate with the TPLA, open aid channels to the whole region, or cease military operations in civilian areas. Given the lack of efficacy of sanctions, international organizations must use their leverage wisely. The AU, UNHRC, and the governments of neighboring countries must come together to prevent further humanitarian destruction.
Discussion Questions:
What steps can the international community take to help resolve the Tigray crisis?
Is it in Ahmed's best interest to continue his civil war?
How can Sudan support the increasing number of Ethiopian refugees?
Is Al-Shabab poised for a comeback in Ethiopia?
What role should the US play, if any, in the Tigray conflict?
Sources Used/ Further Reading:
Comments