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By Carter Hull
Mali Series Part 1
The Basics
For most countries, a global pandemic and severe economic depression are enough to deal with on its own. However, when a group of members of Mali’s military launched a coup to seize power from the country’s democratically elected President, Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, the West African nation was able to cross a military coup d'état off their 2020 bingo card. While the junta seemingly has the support of the Malian people, the international community is not as enamored. In order to understand just how far the implications of the coup really stretch it’s important to go back to the last time, Mali witnessed a coup— 2012.
What happened in 2012?
In 2012, another military coup led to the election of the now-deposed Keïta the following year in 2013. Ever since then, tensions have been simmering throughout Mali as Keïta is widely regarded as an ineffective leader who has failed to provide the economic stability and physical security that Mali yearns for. However, it is not entirely his fault, because following the coup in 2012 the political instability that followed gave way to Islamic fundamentalist groups to capture territory in the north. While French forces with the blessing of Keïta were able to beat back the jihadi threat to a certain extent, they were never completely eradicated. The result unfortunately has been continued violence and political instability that would render even the most skilled leader ineffective.
What was the tipping point?
Malians have been taking to the streets for months now, but the biggest trigger was the decision by the constitutional court to overturn the results of the March legislative elections, handing 10 more seats to Keïta’s party. While the court’s ruling brought people into the streets, the tipping point came on August 18 when a contingent of army colonels anointed themselves the National Commission for the People’s Salvation, arrested Keïta, and various ministers of the government. As a result, Keïta announced his resignation on national TV, wearing a surgical mask, in true 2020 fashion. While the coup leaders originally proposed a three-year transition to civilian rule, ECOWAS or the Economic Community of West African States has demanded a 1-year maximum limit on the transition. Prompting many to wonder what happens now?
What was the International response?
The UN and France have an estimated 20,000 personnel stationed in Mali, while the United States has multiple drown bases stationed nearby in Niger thus it is understandable why the situation in Mali is receiving such scrutiny. As a result of the international attention and wanting to project a strong image ECOWAS has imposed border restrictions, halted financial dealings with Mali, paused Mali’s membership in the group, and threatened economic sanctions over the coup. While the international community has shown sympathy for the Malian people, they have also expressed concern over the removal of Keïta. Despite all of his faults, he was still supportive of Western efforts to combat jihadism in the region, now that the political instability that follows coups could give jihadist groups a new foothold in Mali. Leading to ECOWAS dispatching a team led by former Nigeran President Goodluck Jonathon to negotiate with the coup plotters about what comes next.
What happens now?
Facing pressure from the international community as well as regional powers such as ECOWAS and the African Union, coup leader Colonel Assimi Goita selected Former Defence Minister Bah Ndaw to head a transitional government until a new round of elections could be held in 18 months. Coup leader Goita will serve as Vice President. This decision meets the first demand from ECOWAS to appoint a civilian president in order to lift the sanctions imposed after the coup. However, ECOWAS is pushing for the appointment of a civilian prime minister in order for the sanctions to be entirely lifted. While Bah Ndaw will be leading the transitional government, it remains unclear to what extent he will be actually able to call the shots.
Can Bah Ndaw really lead?
Trained by the Soviets as a helicopter pilot, Bah Ndaw rose through the ranks of Mali’s airforce where he would eventually serve as defense minister for the now-ousted President Keïta. Now he will lead the transitional government for the next 18 months, but how much will he really lead? Integral to the future of Mali will be projecting a unified front between the interim President and the Vice President in order to fend off international pressure on the junta. What happens in the next 18 months will determine how close or far Mali steers from democracy.
Discussion Questions
How should the United States respond to the appointment of Bah Ndaw?
Should the UN accept the appointment of Bah Ndaw?
Will Bah Ndaw be able to rule Mali without military interference?
Can ECOWAS lift sanctions off of Mali with the appointment of a civilian president?
Sources Used
Further Reading
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