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Feb 25, 20213 min read

What is happening in Myanmar?

By: Naz Soysal


After breaking free from British colonial rule in 1948, Myanmar has been beset with political violence and instability. Beginning in 1962, the military ruled Myanmar. A coup, known as the 8888 Uprising, imposed a military junta in 1988 that lasted until 2011 when the country began to democratize. However, military influence within the government has not waned; Myanmar’s constitution guarantees it 25% of the seats in Parliament as well as veto power over amendments to the Constitution. Additionally, through its control of the country’s mining, oil, and gas industries, the military is not dependent on outside demands for reform, with near-complete financial independence. The military also has a proxy party for political office— the Union Solidarity and Development Party. This party acts as the successor to the military junta’s organization, and the vast majority of party leadership comes from military officials. They push for laws that strengthen and entrench military power over Myanmar.


Who is Aung San Suu Kyi?


Aung San Suu Kyi, daughter of Myanmar’s independence hero, General Aung San, was the de-facto leader of Myanmar at the time of the coup on February 1. Because her children are foreign citizens, she cannot rule as president according to the restrictions in the Constitution; however, she generally holds the power in running the country, with the titular role in the hands of her aide. She began her activism after returning to Myanmar in 1988, in the midst of political upheaval, holding rallies and calling for free elections. In 1990, the military held elections as a tool to garner legitimacy for its grip on Burmese politics. However, Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy won the elections decisively. At this point, the military put her under house arrest and refused to acknowledge her win. Released from house arrest 6 years later, Suu Kyi has continued to command political power in the country and act as a powerful counterbalance to the military’s party, with a 2015 victory in the freest election in 25 years in Myanmar. After winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991, she faced mounting international backlash after defending the military’s genocide of the Rohingya population in the International Court of Justice. Many of her awards, such as Amnesty International’s Ambassador of Conscience, have been revoked due to her defense. However, she remains incredibly popular with the Buddhist majority in the country, with a 79% approval rate even after COVID ravaged the country.


How did the electoral conflict begin?


Following November elections in which Suu Kyi’s party won 396 of 476 seats in parliament, the military declared a state of emergency and imposed control on February 1. The military immediately claimed the elections were fraudulent, and they filed 200 complaints to local election agencies, demanding a new election. However, the nation’s electoral commission decided that there were no significant obstacles to a free electoral process. As parliament was to take session the first week of February, the military undertook its coup that Monday. They detained Aung San Suu Kyi and imposed a nighttime curfew across the country. All channels of communication with the international community were blocked off; ministers across departments were replaced with military-designated officials. Immediately, the international community placed condemnatory statements surrounding the coup.


What is the current situation?


As of February 24, 2021, at least two protestors have been shot by police as demonstrations continue across the country. Hundreds of thousands have participated in these protests, even at the threat of their lives. Police have shot peaceful protestors with both live rounds and rubber bullets. There have also been hundreds of arrests of demonstrators and leaders of protests, with the military conducting nighttime raids. At the present moment, dissent continues as violence escalates amid resistance towards the decline of democratic institutions in the country.


What is the response from the international community?


The United States has threatened to reinstate sanctions on Myanmar, though likely not broad sanctions that affect the whole of the population. The Biden administration, in collaboration with Canada and the UK, has imposed targeted sanctions on high-ranking Myanmar military leaders and on gem exports. However, as these nations are not Myanmar’s largest trading partners, they have significantly less leverage than Myanmar’s neighboring countries.


It is unlikely that Asian nations such as India or Japan will engage in condemnatory measures due to their fears of this leading to Myanmar aligning with China. At the same time, though China is unlikely to take any sort of measure beyond statements, it is wary of the coup, tacitly supportive of Suu Kyi as the military has an explicit anti-China bent. In the end, the coup in Myanmar is likely to contribute to the democratic decline in neighboring countries and promote regional instability with tensions between ethnic groups.


Discussion Questions:


  • Do the claims of electoral fraud hold any weight? Should they be investigated further?

  • How should the US respond to the coup in Myanmar?

  • Has Suu Kyi’s complicated legacy tarnished her capacity to democratize the country?


Sources Used/Further Reading:




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