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Jul 28, 20203 min read

Why are Azerbaijan and Armenia in conflict?

By: Diane Sun


In the Caucasus region, a sequel to decades of conflict has flared up between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The two former Soviet republics began fighting on July 12th, killing at least 16 people, including an Azerbaijani general. This marks the deadliest flare up since their “Four Day War” in 2016, which had an estimated death toll of 350 people. Both countries claim the other was the initiator, marketing themselves to be victims of the other’s artillery fire along the border. As a result, Azerbaijan has threatened to bomb Armenia’s nuclear power plant, which provides nearly half the country’s power. This recent provocation has alarmed nearby countries such as Turkey and Russia as well as supranational organizations like NATO.



However, the conflict itself is nothing new. Before its dissolution, the Soviet government created the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region and placed it within Azerbaijan — despite Karabakh being 95% ethnically Armenian. After the Soviet Union collapsed, Nagorno-Karabakh passed a resolution to join Armenia in 1988, resulting in inter-ethnic violence and the rise of an Armenian separatist movement, now unchecked by the Soviet Union who formerly kept a tight rein on ethnic tension in the region. Ultimately Nagorno-Karabakh declared independence in 1991, sparking the ongoing conflict.


The resulting war led to an estimated 30,000 casualties and nearly a million displaced people. In 1993, Armenia successfully controlled the entirety of Nagorno-Karabakh and even occupied another 20% of Azerbaijan’s territory. This war came to a close in 1994 via a ceasefire brokered by Russia, but regardless of what’s on paper, Armenia and Azerbaijan have continuously had border clashes throughout the decades, taking dozens of lives from each side.


It’s important to note that the tensions cannot be faulted to just borders, but rather stems from intense ethnic and religious historical conflict as well. Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh’s populations consist of mostly Christian Armenians, while Azerbaijan consists mostly of Turkic Muslims, leading to their strong linguistic, religious, and cultural ties to Turkey. As a result, Azerbaijan is one of the two states in the world, including Turkey, who denies the Armenian Genocide, which took 1.5 million Armenian lives at the hands of the Ottoman government.

Turkey naturally backs Azerbaijan, with Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar promising that Armenia “will definitely pay for what they’ve done.” On the other hand, Russia is wearing three faces in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, as an ally, mediator, and a supplier. As Armenia’s nominal strategic partner, the country seemingly fired a warning shot at Azerbaijan by holding military drills with 150,000 troops and 400 aircrafts in the Russian-Azerbaijani border region in response to the recent fighting. However, in order to protect it’s international influence, Russia has also taken an active role as a mediator, along with the US and France, by chairing the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which is dedicated to mediating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. But hypocritically, Russia continues to fuel the conflict as they sell massive amounts of arms to both sides.


As this decades old conflict reignites at the crux of Central Asia and Europe, many wonder as to whether stability will ever be achieved in the region. Unfortunately, unless international actors effectively broker a lasting peace agreement, Armenia and Azerbaijan might take their respective continents down with them.


Discussion Questions:

  • How will the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict affect Turkey-Russia relations?

  • How should NATO respond to the recent flare up in Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict?

  • How has the Armenian Genocide affected the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict?


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