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By: Ethan Wilkes
Azerbaijan and Armenia have been in an ongoing conflict with tensions that go back to 1920, and the conflict officially started in 1988. The cause behind the conflict is a disputed region known as Nagorno-Karabakh, a part of Azerbaijan but having a majority Armenian population. In the late 1980s, Nagorno-Karabakh’s government voted to be a part of Armenia. Azerbaijan was highly against this movement, while Armenia backed it, leading to ethnic tensions spiking to an all-time high. Once Azerbaijan and Armenia became independent of the Soviet Union, full-scale war broke out. Over the next few years, millions were displaced and tens of thousands of soldiers' lives were lost. Finally, in 1994, a ceasefire was agreed upon, and both sides came to the negotiation table. After years of ineffective peace negotiations, both sides grew frustrated, striking another fight in 2016, and again in the summer of 2020, costing more lives and eruptions of instability. In early 2021, the two countries would finally come to the negotiation table to strike a peace deal. How was the peace deal initiated and what is in it? In January of 2021, Russia brought both sides back to the negotiation table to have mediated peace talks. Both sides had a long history of complacency and disagreement, but surprisingly, an agreement was formed quickly which called for Armenia to hand over some of their territory to Azerbaijan, and allowed for Azerbaijan to hold onto the majority of the disputed territory. It is generally agreed upon in the international community that Russia, a large foot holder in this conflict, used its leverage to demand peace. As of the actual agreement, Armenia must begin to pull back its military and cease territory to Azerbaijan without much in return. The three districts that Armenia has to hand over are Aghdam, Lachin, and Kalbajar, all very oil-rich areas. As a result, Azerbaijan leaders were praised with higher approval ratings and celebrations for reaching peace and taking a victory on the negotiation table. On the other hand, Armenia had protests spark across the country, ordering their Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to resign. Why would Armenia agree to such a one-sided deal?
Armenian diplomats knew that they were already on the losing side of the conflict. If peace wasn’t met, Azerbaijan would overwhelm the region with more military, and Armenia didn’t want to take the risk of calling their bluff. Azerbaijan’s military is far larger and more powerful than Armenia, as it is backed by different proxies such as the United States; this means that Armenia is not in a position to win the conflict anytime soon. Although the agreement is far from ideal, it is far better than risking the lives of thousands in an ultimately losing conflict. Even more than losing troops, Armenia was also losing power, suffering economic loss, and its foothold in international negotiations was eroding due to the intensity of the conflict. Furthermore, signing the peace deal demonstrates to Russia, Azerbaijan, and the rest of the international community that Armenia is willing to negotiate, rather than continue the conflict, improving its reputation to its allies.
What does this peace agreement mean for the trajectory of the region? First, a large portion of the 90,000 Azerbaijanis that fled the region during the most recent military conflict will be expected to return home. During the agreement, Russia agreed to deploy peacekeepers to the region to protect them on their journey back home. As a result, many Azerbaijanis are severely devastated by the state of their property, as it was a warzone just a few weeks ago. People’s property was destroyed and sovereign land was eroded purely because of Azerbaijan and Armenia’s unwillingness to agree on the negotiation table in the past.
Second, the economy of disputed regions could change very quickly. Prior to the peace deal, these regions have been very reliant on Armenian investments, but the peace deal blocks that. Instead, Azerbaijan has decided to invest in oil-rich districts. Such investments could mean large economic profits for Azerbaijan, and pitfalls in financial growth for Armenia as an industry that was home to tens of thousands of jobs as well as leverage over international trade is mostly gone. Most importantly, nobody is fully sure what the future of the military relationship between the two countries will look like, but at the very least, fighting will stop in the short term. Neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia are fully satisfied with the current state of the agreement, but comparatively, it is much better than a seemingly never-ending military conflict. Diplomats have reported that the agreement is relatively ambiguous about certain aspects of its requirements such as punishments for non-compliance and Russia’s role in their military presence. If that ambiguity is not resolved soon, disagreements and tensions could arise, risking the current state of peace.
Discussion Questions:
What is Russia’s vested interest in creating peace in Nagorno-Karabakh?
Will the Azerbaijan/Armenian peace deal create long-term stability?
How should Armenia prepare itself for the future of its international security?
Was the Azerbaijan/Armenian peace deal beneficial for Armenian international interests?
What foreign policy changes should Azerbaijan make after the recent peace deal in order to create domestic stability?
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